NBA betting: Thunder vs. Mavericks Game 3 prediction, odds, expert pick for Sat. 5/11

Thunder vs. Mavericks Odds

Saturday, May 11, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Oklahoma City Thunder

For the Thunder, the big change to make is obvious. It's so obvious that the books are semi-hedging the possibility, listing Aaron Wiggins as a first basket option after he started the second half over Josh Giddey.

Giddey was always going to be the first potential adjustment for head coach Mark Daigneault and a -20 in 13 minutes in Game 2 makes it so everyone thinks it's happening.

That being said, BetMGM didn't properly adjust for an all-unders Giddey same-game parlay last game, as our own Brandon Anderson pointed out on Green Dot Daily.

The books have adjusted a bit, but not enough. If Dallas starts beating Oklahoma City in the Giddey minutes, he may just be out of the rotation entirely as the Thunder are an incredibly deep team with options aplenty.

On the plus side, I love Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to lead the game in scoring. We all know he has basically the best scoring floor in the league, and while Luka Doncic looked better at times in Game 2, he still didn't reach 30. Bettors can get Gilgeous-Alexander at +130 to lead the game in scoring at FanDuel.

Dallas Mavericks

On the Dallas side of things, it really does feel like hitting 3s is the way the Mavericks are going to win games. Their defense certainly looked better in Game 2, but by the numbers, the Thunder were actually still quite effective — it was the 7-of-11 from P.J. Washington, 5-of-8 from Doncic and 3-of-5 from Josh Green — all from deep — that got Dallas the win.

I lean toward the Thunder in this game, so I won't actively be betting it, but if you're betting Dallas, I think you almost have to turn it into a script win. The odds for all players aren't out yet, but a same-game parlay centered around a Mavericks spread cover, plus Tim Hardaway Jr./Green 3s would be how I'd play it.

Thunder vs. Mavericks

Betting Pick & Prediction

That being said, I do lean toward the Thunder and like their team total Over 107.5 as a best bet. Even in Game 2, when they hit only 10 3s (very low for them), they cleared this number. And the less Giddey plays, the better the offense performs. Along those lines, I also like Wiggins to play more and adding his overs to the Giddey unders makes perfect sense.

I also like Gilgeous-Alexander to lead the game in scoring, as well as Doncic to go Under 30.5 points.

Picks: Thunder Team Total Over | Giddey Unders (Paired With Wiggins Overs) | Doncic Points Under | Gilgeous-Alexander To Lead Game In Scoring